Last month, a column dedicated to the four-year recruiting expectations for each MWC team was posted. Today’s column follows a similar pattern, but rather than recruiting, it will identify four-year realistic cycles for each team. Check below for each team’s four-year win highs and lows, as well as their potential bowl and conference championship cycles.
Disclaimer: each team’s specific breakdown is meant to be examined in its own context, not in relation to every other team. This means that multiple teams may have the expectation of making a conference championship once every four years, even if it’s not possible for each team to do so over the same four-year period.
Air Force
- Four year high: 11 wins
- Four year low: 6 wins
- Other two years: 8 wins
- Bowl cycle: Four out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Falcons have a high ceiling but low floor given the uniqueness of their offensive scheme, which can lead to polarizing results. In the past few years, they have either had a dynamic offense or a stout defense, and when they have both, they are one of the best teams in the conferences. If they only have one or the other, Air Force becomes more the type of team that competes for bowl berths, which they should achieve every year.
Boise State
- Four year high: 12 wins
- Four year low: 9 wins
- Other two years: 10.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Four out of four years
- MWC Championship game: three out of four years
- NY6 bowl: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Broncos have the highest set of expectations, and for good reason. They have the most consistent track record on the field and bring in the most talent on the recruiting trail. Ten-win seasons are pretty much the norm, give or take a win depending on the year. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make a bowl every season and find themselves in the championship game nearly every year. Although they haven’t done so in quite a while, they should also be making a New Year’s Six Bowl appearance once a cycle.
Colorado State
- Four year high: 7 wins
- Four year low: 3 wins
- Other two years: 4.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Rams are transitioning into a young team looking for more future cornerstones. The next season or two figures to bring some low points in the cycle as they fully transition from the old regime to the current schemes under Steve Addazio. Expect a season or two with three or four wins to their name before a bowl berth at the all too familiar 7-6 benchmark.
Fresno State
- Four year high: 10 wins
- Four year low: 5 wins
- Other two years: 7.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Three out of four years
- MWC Championship game: one out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Bulldogs were a tough team to place, as they have had more extreme highs and lows than other teams, making it difficult to establish a true base. They appear to have another special season on the horizon with the way they recruited and hit the transfer portal, thus the reason for listing the ten wins and conference championship appearance. However, they are also prone to misfiring out of the gate and not being able to recover, so they have a low floor listed as well. For bowls, it seems like a safer bet they clinch one more often than not.
Hawaii
- Four year high: 8 wins
- Four year low: 4 wins
- Other two years: 5.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Two out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Rainbow Warriors took a gentle step back from the championship appearance the year before, but more challenging times may be coming up ahead for them. They have entirely changed their schemes, and thus, the roster needs a makeover to find players who fit those schemes. It would be expected to see some middling years, low highs and high lows, with no extreme season on either end. Hawaii should be a good bet to make at least one bowl, however.
Nevada
- Four year high: 9
- Four year low: 5
- Other two years: 7.5
- Bowl cycle: Three out of four years
- MWC Championship game: One of our four years
- Bottom Line: The Wolf Pack have earned the benefit of the doubt here as they have raised their standard already the past few seasons with three straight bowls. It seems fair to expect them to finish above .500 and reach a bowl three out of the next four years, and it’s not too much to ask to win the West division of those seasons. No one has raised their floor more than Nevada these past four years, which is reflected here.
New Mexico
- Four years high: 6 wins
- Four year low: 2 wins
- Other two years: 4 wins
- Bowl cycle: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: As a team in the beginning stages of a complete rebuild, there is no need to set expectations that have no chance of being completed. That being said, the Lobos were reasonably impressive in their first season under Danny Gonzales, competing in almost every game and getting in the win column twice. Reaching six wins and a bowl game does not seem out of the question for them in this cycle, and raising their floor with a few four-win seasons also seems attainable in the back of half the four years.
San Diego State
- Four years high: 10 wins
- Four year low: 7 wins
- Other two years: 8.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Four out of four years
- MWC Championship game: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Aztecs have long been considered the most consistent team in the conference, which carries positive and negative connotations. Their expectations in the next cycle reflect much of what they’ve already done; they have a higher floor than most but a lower ceiling compared to some. This results in expecting SDSU to have solid but not spectacular seasons, which annual bowl appearances and hopefully a conference title appearance along with it.
San Jose State
- Four years high: 7 wins
- Four year low: 4 wins
- Other two years: 5.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Two out of four years
- Bottom Line: It remains to be seen if 2020 is the high point for the Spartans or the start of a new wave of competitiveness. Due to that, their expectations are set somewhere in the middle. They likely have another bowl season or two in them, and their floor embraces a likely fallout as this wave of players phases out. They were difficult to figure out but will be among the most interesting to follow.
UNLV
- Four year high: 4 wins
- Four year low: 1 win
- Other two years: 3.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: The Rebels get some leeway with their expectations as they are a rebuilding program. Their high win total is the benchmark goal for year three or four, and making a bowl game at some point in this cycle would be a major boon for the program. Incremental success is the name of the game for Arroyo and his program, for this cycle anyway.
Utah State
- Four year high: 5.5 wins
- Four year low: 2 wins
- Other two years: 3.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: One out of four years
- Bottom Line: It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Aggies were not only in the top of the conference standings but also nationally ranked. Times have changed, and expectations along with it. With a rebuild appearing likely and necessary, Utah State falls into a grouping with other teams looking to start from the ground up. Preparing for lean years with only two or three wins seems like a safe bet, with reaching a bowl or falling just short feeling attainable on the back end of the cycle.
Wyoming
- Four year high: 9 wins
- Four year low: 6 wins
- Other two years: 7.5 wins
- Bowl cycle: Three out of four years
- Bottom Line: Under Craig Bohl, the Cowboys have achieved something they have never experienced before: consistency as a good but not great team. Expect more of the same going forward because there is no reason to believe anything different. They should make a bowl game at least three of the next four years if not all four. They will likely be in the seven or eight-win range, give or take a win on either end. While the hope is there is still a special season to be had one of these years, having a high floor is much better than the alternative of years past.
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March 10, 2021 at 11:00PM
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Peak Perspective: Realistic Four Year Cycle For Each Program - Mountain West Connection
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