Hot and humid weather, combined with upper-air disturbances, will put Michigan in a thunderstorm pattern over the next week. The interesting part is the thunderstorms won’t come at the likely time of the day.
Normally summer thunderstorms flare up in the heat of the afternoon and early evening, and then diminish overnight. The recent thunderstorm pattern has a bit of a different life cycle. The thunderstorms have been developing overnight, lasting about 12 hours and diminishing to nothing during the morning.
We could have one of these nighttime thunderstorm cycles each night from tonight through next Monday. By late Monday we will finally have a lowering of the humidity, but only for a few days.
One thing that happens with this type of nighttime thunderstorms is the chance of severe weather is reduced. We could still have isolated gusts to 60 mph in a thunderstorm, but we wouldn’t likely have a long line of widespread severe thunderstorms.
Here is the radar forecast for this afternoon through Thursday morning.
Radar forecast this afternoon through 8 a.m. Thursday.
Notice the cyclical nature of the thunderstorms. One thunderstorm cycle will develop tonight and die-off as it crosses northern Lower Michigan tomorrow morning. The second cycle of storms Wednesday night will make it farther south Thursday morning, but probably still not hold together into southern Lower.
The forecast below gives us six hour increments of rainfall amounts, and goes out to Monday evening.
Rainfall totals in six hour increments from today through next Monday evening.
By Friday night and Saturday morning, the heart of a thunderstorm cycle could roll across Lower Michigan. The same is true for Saturday night and Sunday night. It may take until the weekend before southern Lower gets into the heart of a storm.
The final animation below is the total rainfall expected through Monday. You get a good feel for two things. Northern Lower and the U.P. will have more rain than southern Lower. Also, the accumulating rainfall will gradually shift south each day through the weekend.
Total rainfall through Monday evening, August 30.
It is getting dry again across Michigan. Afternoon temperatures in the low-90s take away soil moisture quickly. It will be a waiting game for southern Lower, but we should all eventually get some useful rainfall. With the rain could come some isolated severe thunderstorms.
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August 24, 2021 at 10:16PM
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Odd thunderstorm cycle over Michigan for next 6 days - MLive.com
"cycle" - Google News
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