Editor’s note: This is the “Inside College Football with John Talty” newsletter. Talty will bring you weekly original insights into the SEC and other college football developments you care about. You can sign up for the newsletter here which will arrive in your inbox every Thursday morning.
The college football coaching carousel is always crazy, but this year feels especially so. Four schools that industry experts view as top 10 jobs – LSU, USC, Notre Dame and Oklahoma – all went through coaching changes. Massive money has been doled out, both to pluck coaches away and to keep them in place. And it still isn’t over yet, with Power 5 programs such as Oklahoma and Duke still looking for new coaches.
With the caveat that things move quickly this time of year, here are four thoughts on what we’ve seen so far and what could be coming down the line.
The law of unintended consequences
Actions, especially big ones, always have unintended effects. Sometimes they are good, and sometimes they are bad, but there are always things that crop up that couldn’t have been anticipated. A chief example: Lincoln Riley going to USC. Riley might downplay the reason, but there had been rumors for months that Riley wasn’t thrilled about Oklahoma’s impending move to the SEC. Whether it was the driving force to leave Oklahoma is only something Riley can answer, but it feels like, at a minimum, Oklahoma’s big move to leave the Big 12 for the SEC’s greener pastures played a role in his departure. That’s an unintended consequence. Now, Oklahoma finds itself needing the right coach before joining the SEC as the wrong decision could put the Sooners in a precarious spot in the more competitive conference.
Don’t be surprised if we see some unintended consequences from the exploding salaries in college football. We’ll explore this topic more in a future newsletter, but remember that these things don’t happen in a vacuum. When Mel Tucker gets a guaranteed 10-year, $95 million contract and Brian Kelly receives a deal that should pay him upwards of $10 million annually if he does the bare minimum at LSU, there will be ripple effects. Not just for other coaches, though I’m sure super-agent Jimmy Sexton is licking his lips knowing how much he’s going to capitalize on those trend-setting deals, but for college football in general. Change is afoot in college football, and these landmark deals could create more of it.
More from Talty:
Why LSU swung big and hired Brian Kelly
Enjoy this Alabama team for what it is after wild Iron Bowl win
How a search firm prepares for the coaching carousel
Napier isn’t McElwain or Muschamp
To those who don’t know Billy Napier (above), it can be easy to label him as another former Saban assistant who won’t succeed at Florida. The Gators, after all, had already gone down this path before with Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain, neither of which was able to meet the fanbase’s expectations before being fired. Napier might suffer a similar fate but he’s very different from both. It’s one thing to spend a couple of years around Saban and start spreading the “Process” gospel, but Napier has taken the best parts of Saban’s approach and made them his own. He’s very detail-oriented and a relentless recruiter like Saban, but he isn’t trying to be a replica of his former boss. Napier found a style that worked well for him at Louisiana, leading to a host of job opportunities at the Power 5 level before he jumped for the one in Gainesville.
RELATED: How Nick Saban’s ‘Process’ is being channeled in Cajun Country
To win big in the SEC, you have to put together a great staff and excel in recruiting. Time will ultimately tell on those topics, but Napier has the SEC experience and connections throughout the game to excel in both. I don’t foresee the recruiting issues that played a role in predecessor Dan Mullen’s downfall will be an issue for Napier.
Will Alabama’s coordinators get new jobs?
The lead-up to the SEC Championship is typically a popular time for other schools to try to poach Nick Saban’s top assistants to be their next head coach. A year ago, Auburn was interested in interviewing offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who ultimately declined and later ended up at Texas. I remember then-defensive coordinator Kirby Smart walking into the Hyatt Regency in Atlanta to meet with Georgia officials after the 2015 SEC Championship game. There has been a buzz around Saban’s two coordinators this cycle though neither has landed a head coaching job yet.
Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien’s name popped up in the LSU search, but I was later told he was never a serious contender to land the job. There was some buzz around his name for the Virginia Tech job that ultimately went to Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry. There isn’t an obvious option open right now for O’Brien though there could be more dominos to fall. He is viewed in the industry as someone worthy of a Power 5 gig after his previous work at Penn State.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been mentioned for the Louisiana job to replace Napier, but he isn’t considered the top candidate for that opening after talking to multiple industry sources. I spoke to informed sources before the coaching carousel cranked up, and there wasn’t much buzz at the time about Golding’s head coaching prospects. That isn’t to say Golding can’t land a head coaching job somewhere, but there isn’t as much buzz around his name as there had been for the two guys who came before him in Smart and Jeremy Pruitt.
Notre Dame defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman watches during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Navy in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)AP
Marcus Freeman’s smart move
Marcus Freeman was a hot commodity last year. Coming off an impressive year as Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator, Freeman was the target of multiple schools looking to make an upgrade on defense. After LSU fired Bo Pelini, Freeman became Ed Orgeron’s top target, believing Freeman could help get the Tigers back on track after a disappointing 5-5 2020 season. And for a time, LSU felt very good about landing Freeman for that role before Brian Kelly swayed him at the last minute to come to Notre Dame instead.
With news that Freeman is expected to be the next Notre Dame head coach, that one decision might be the smartest any coach made over the last 12 months. Freeman would have likely fared better than first-time LSU DC Daronte Jones, but who knows if it would have been enough to save Orgeron’s job. Instead, Orgeron gets fired and LSU hires Kelly, a stunning development no one could have predicted a year ago. One thing is for certain: Freeman wouldn’t be the next Notre Dame head coach if he picked Baton Rouge over South Bend.
Freeman’s promotion might surprise outside folks but he is highly regarded at Notre Dame. Current players love him, and he should be a better recruiter than Kelly (Freeman powered ND’s recent push up the recruiting rankings). The staff clearly believes in him, given how many have turned down opportunities to follow Kelly to LSU. There’s risk involved in giving a 35-year old first-time head coach as plum an opportunity like this one, but those who know Freeman believe he has an extremely high ceiling as a head coach.
RELATED: Why LSU swung big and hired Brian Kelly
(In our Nov. 4 Inside College Football newsletter, we reported, “Expect LSU AD Scott Woodward to make a big swing with this hire, targeting proven (and expensive) sitting head coaches. One name sources have mentioned that could fit what Woodward wants: Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly.” Want more SEC insights before anyone else? You can sign up for our Inside College Football newsletter here.)
Ranking the remaining open jobs
Here is an updated list of the current open FBS jobs and how I’d rank them:
1) Oklahoma -- The job got tougher moving to the SEC but still a blue blood program.
2) Duke -- Not the easiest job but better job security than the average Power 5 job, and a well-regarded new AD running the show.
3) Temple -- Before Rod Carey was fired, the last three Temple head coaches (Matt Rhule, Geoff Collins and Manny Diaz) all went on to bigger jobs.
4) Fresno State -- Newly hired Washington coach Kalen DeBoer and his predecessor Jeff Tedford showed what the Bulldogs can achieve.
5) Colorado State -- Steve Addazio was a disaster but Colorado State has a nice stadium and should be competitive in the Mountain West under the right coach.
6) Troy -- The Trojans slid under Chip Lindsey but Troy has a passionate fanbase and a strong tradition. Should be one of the better Sun Belt schools each year.
7) Florida International -- This program is a mess but it can only get better with former AD Pete Garcia finally out of the picture.
John Talty is the sports editor and SEC Insider for Alabama Media Group. You can follow him on Twitter @JTalty.
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